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falls off the fiscal cliff next week. >>> investors are bracing for the final eurozone bond sale of the year. italy will sell up to 6 billion later today. >> and the yen has been sent lower and stocks to their highest level in 21 months. >>> this is the final "worldwide exchange" from london of the year. louisa is here for it. >> i can't believe it. it's my last working day of the year, as well. >> is it? >> yes. >> unfortunately we'll still be talking about the same thing we're talking about now. >> although i feel we'll be talking more debt ceiling, as well. >> and speaking of which, president obama is trying a last ditch effort to restart budget talks days before the u.s. goes over the fiscal cliff. speaker john boehner has called the house back into session sunday evening. house majority leader eric cantor is telling his members to be prepared to work through january 2nd. both sides are still far apart on taxes and spending cuts. harry reid says prospect deals by monday are unlikely. minority leader mitch mcconnell says there's still time for an agreement. >> republicans aren't like
falls off the fiscal cliff next week. >>> investors are bracing for the final eurozone bond sale of the year. italy will sell up to 6 billion later today. >> and the yen has been sent lower and stocks to their highest level in 21 months. >>> this is the final "worldwide exchange" from london of the year. louisa is here for it. >> i can't believe it. it's my last working day of the year, as well. >> is it? >> yes. >> unfortunately we'll...
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bet on mgm when the fiscal cliff looms next strike and this as well as all other stocks get hammered. craig in my home state of new jersey. craig? >> caller: how are you doing? >> what's going on, partner? >> caller: calling about expedia. the recent inquiry. how you feel about that? >> i feel really good about that. i follow this closely. expedia is a good partner of the inn that i own. i know how powerful they are. this consolidates them in europe. is it enough reason to buy expedia? i liked expedia beforehand. i like it even more now. shane in georgia. shane? >> caller: hey, jim. booyah from sunny, atlanta, georgia. merry christmas. >> same to you. i like the falcons here. i like them. i got julio. j.j. is on my team. he's done fabulous. i know he watches. thank you. go ahead. julio is a close fan of "mad money." >> caller: with the fiscal cliff looming and with today's pullback and available funds to be invested, las vegas sands is a fine sales to income growth in china, asia and nevada and with p & e of 26.9 in a buy recommendation reiterated today, is now the time to be on the l
bet on mgm when the fiscal cliff looms next strike and this as well as all other stocks get hammered. craig in my home state of new jersey. craig? >> caller: how are you doing? >> what's going on, partner? >> caller: calling about expedia. the recent inquiry. how you feel about that? >> i feel really good about that. i follow this closely. expedia is a good partner of the inn that i own. i know how powerful they are. this consolidates them in europe. is it enough reason...
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to be in the cyclical stocks if you get a deal on the fiscal cliff. if not, then retail goes worse. we analyzed this last week and said there's big drag. >> so, doc, is the trade the prudent trade you have to take some money off the table in the retail space? the consumer, the data has shown to be good and then you get holiday numbers from master card that say we're only up .7%. >> i'll take any gains we can get. the fact that we're just about flat is a positive for me. obviously there's a pretty significant rotation and people are selling today in these retail names. you can see that because the volumes are pathetically low on the rest of the street. about 50% of normal activity so far to date whether it's options or stock or even futures. but this particular sector you look at the stocks, whether it's tiffany's, coach, or abercrombie & fitch, all of them are nearly trading full session volumes. they're certainly on track for that. it's the only sector in the market that is. there are other sectors that are moving, but you're not seeing any real doll
to be in the cyclical stocks if you get a deal on the fiscal cliff. if not, then retail goes worse. we analyzed this last week and said there's big drag. >> so, doc, is the trade the prudent trade you have to take some money off the table in the retail space? the consumer, the data has shown to be good and then you get holiday numbers from master card that say we're only up .7%. >> i'll take any gains we can get. the fact that we're just about flat is a positive for me. obviously...
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if the fiscal cliff is fixed, then have a very strong first half and back half of next year. if it doesn't, we will have a situation that we see at christmas where low sales will not translate to mixed earnings. they will see a lot of margin improvements and upside from there. >> all right. we will leave it there. thank you. i appreciate your time. have a great holiday. >> thank you. >>> up next, hollywood is eyeing what could be the best for the box office ever. pushing towards the finish line is the hobbit. we will find out if the movie momentum should have a starring role in your 2013 portfolio and it could be the moment expensive christmas dinner in history. but why is no one buying? we have details including the $60,000 bottle of champagne. stay with us. >>> there aren't as many films as there used to be. holiday's take is down this year, according to the street.com. but there have been memorable holiday releases in the past. what are the three biggest christmas block busters of all time? find out next. a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends
if the fiscal cliff is fixed, then have a very strong first half and back half of next year. if it doesn't, we will have a situation that we see at christmas where low sales will not translate to mixed earnings. they will see a lot of margin improvements and upside from there. >> all right. we will leave it there. thank you. i appreciate your time. have a great holiday. >> thank you. >>> up next, hollywood is eyeing what could be the best for the box office ever. pushing...
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expenditures for the economy next year? >> i think there are few reasons why we will. one, global growth. china appears to be stabilizing and the rest of the emerging markets are growing. more demand for export business. number two, corporations are sitting on $1.5 trillion of cash. they have a lot of cash. they just need to know how to spend it based on overall tax policy. and number three, if you look at equipment and plant equipment in america today, the inventory is old and due reinvestment and upgrades. there's a lot of pent up demand for investment spending. >> there have been a few bright spots in our economy anyway. i think of housing, which has been in recovery mode right now. does that continue in 2013 even if we do see this -- some sort of resolution of the fiscal cliff and what it could do to paychecks and jobs in the economy? >> the offset is that people look at the value of their houses and start feeling better. one-third of household wealth is the value of their house and if they start seeing prices stabilize
expenditures for the economy next year? >> i think there are few reasons why we will. one, global growth. china appears to be stabilizing and the rest of the emerging markets are growing. more demand for export business. number two, corporations are sitting on $1.5 trillion of cash. they have a lot of cash. they just need to know how to spend it based on overall tax policy. and number three, if you look at equipment and plant equipment in america today, the inventory is old and due...
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looks good. >> thank you carl. >> see you next time. >>> financials and the fiscal cliff. what is next for the big bank trade after a big run up in 2012? we have sanford bernstein's brad hintz to weigh in. first rick santelli always clean shaven is joining us next working on something for a little later on. >> we have jeff carter. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff but from a much more cynical perspective. he believes that the cbo's call, if we go over the cliff in recession, well, he doesn't believe him. he says there is a keynesian base. what does it mean? he too cynical? i don't know. tune in in about 11 minutes to find out. >>> financials and the fiscal cliff plus the looming february stress tests is the big bank runup of this year finally coming to a close? brad hintz is an equity research analyst and joins us from new york. good to see. good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> new year is going to be fascinating to watch. dodd frank implementation. let's just talk about the rules first. investors know these are coming and why are the stocks trading up in lig
looks good. >> thank you carl. >> see you next time. >>> financials and the fiscal cliff. what is next for the big bank trade after a big run up in 2012? we have sanford bernstein's brad hintz to weigh in. first rick santelli always clean shaven is joining us next working on something for a little later on. >> we have jeff carter. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff but from a much more cynical perspective. he believes that the cbo's call, if we go over the...
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live for coverage of the fiscal cliff. myself and a cast of thousands with your latest as we count down toward the end of the year. "closing bell" coming up next. could be a big final hour of trading. bill griffith and an australian woman hosting the next hour. stay tuned anyway. >>> yeah. hang on, kids. here we go. welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffith. >> and i'm the australian woman. i'm mandy back at cnbc's world headquarters standing in for maria bartiromo. here we go, folks. stap yourself in. last trading hour for the whole year. the fiscal cliff, there may be a merge. we'll bring more on that. >> take a look at the charts. this tells the story in the last few minutes with mitch mcconnell on the floor saying that we are very, very close. we'll get more details from john harwood in a moment, but right now the markets are voting and they're giving thumbs up with the dow up 138 points. nasdaq up 2% right now. it's been strong all day. now at 3,020. and the s&p up 1.5%. >> look at those stocks go. president obama
live for coverage of the fiscal cliff. myself and a cast of thousands with your latest as we count down toward the end of the year. "closing bell" coming up next. could be a big final hour of trading. bill griffith and an australian woman hosting the next hour. stay tuned anyway. >>> yeah. hang on, kids. here we go. welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffith. >> and i'm the australian woman. i'm mandy back at cnbc's world headquarters standing in for maria...
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so it really is up to the government to do better and to resolve this fiscal cliff. in terms of who the next fed chairman's going to be, we don't have a sense on that. we think bernanke has done a masterful job, and we really do like him in this position. >> david katz, thank you very much for your time. >> thanks a lot. >>> that wraps up this special boxing day edition of "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> i'm jackie deangelis. it was great to be here with you this morning. don't forget to tune in to cnbc.com every tuesday and thursday at 1:00 p.m. eastern for my show, "futures now." "squawk box" is up next. >> have a great morning. [ male announcer ] it's that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don't want to pay more than you have to. only citi price rewind automatically searches for the lowest price. and if it finds one, you get refunded the difference. just use your citi card and register your purchase online. have a super sparkly day! ok. [ male announcer ] now all you n
so it really is up to the government to do better and to resolve this fiscal cliff. in terms of who the next fed chairman's going to be, we don't have a sense on that. we think bernanke has done a masterful job, and we really do like him in this position. >> david katz, thank you very much for your time. >> thanks a lot. >>> that wraps up this special boxing day edition of "worldwide exchange." i'm seema mody. >> i'm jackie deangelis. it was great to be here...
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about the deal regarding the fiscal cliff. and consumers on everything from cell phones to tablets could become vulnerable to cyber-crime. mcafee has released its 2013 predictions report and expect to see a rapid level of cyber-threats in the coming year. michele is the privacy officer of mcafee. good morning. >> good morning to you. >> strikes me as we all go mobile, talk about opening a new doorway for thieves and criminals to enter, what does that mean for threats in the new year? >> it's really interesting. mobile is one of the places we're seeing a lot of new attacks. there's a couple deficit vectors for the attacks. the bump and steal attack. nfc, how you do mobile wallet. crooks are able to walk through crowds and literally bump into your phone and steal information from your phone. that's one of the attacks. the other thing is your telephone has turned into a powerful computing device and like you protect your pc and other devices, you need to think about protection on the phone itself from traditional hacking exploits
about the deal regarding the fiscal cliff. and consumers on everything from cell phones to tablets could become vulnerable to cyber-crime. mcafee has released its 2013 predictions report and expect to see a rapid level of cyber-threats in the coming year. michele is the privacy officer of mcafee. good morning. >> good morning to you. >> strikes me as we all go mobile, talk about opening a new doorway for thieves and criminals to enter, what does that mean for threats in the new...
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one of our next guests says should we go over the fiscal cliff, someone else on wall street says the cliff will not be a doomsday event. we'll get them to make their case coming up. >> and also later on. facebook making an about face on using user photos for advertising. >> and winter storm euclid is pummeling the east coast. the latest storm and storm track coming up in the next hour of the program. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. you won't take our future. aids affects us all. even babies. chevron is working to stop mother-to-child transmission. our employees and their families are part of the fight. and we're winning. at chevron nigeria, we haven't had a reported case in 12 years. aids is strong. aids is strong. but we are stronger. and aid
one of our next guests says should we go over the fiscal cliff, someone else on wall street says the cliff will not be a doomsday event. we'll get them to make their case coming up. >> and also later on. facebook making an about face on using user photos for advertising. >> and winter storm euclid is pummeling the east coast. the latest storm and storm track coming up in the next hour of the program. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. plus, in-branch seminars at over...
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but can any progress be made on the fiscal cliff? doubt it, but we'll see next. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm kelly evans. ross westgate is away. these are your headlines from around the world. president obama and congress return to work today with little progress seen on the deal to avoid the fiscal cliff while the government starts taking steps to buy more time before the u.s. hits the debt ceiling. the yen hits a two-year low against the dollar as the new japanese government vows to battle deflation and weaken the currency. export stocks rise pushing the nikkei towards it's strongest gain in seven years. and toyota moves higher after the car dealer settles a class action lawsuit. analysts say the $1 billion payment is already priced in. >> it was a pretty quiet trading session in the u.s. yesterday. retail stocks were one of the market's worst performers. we were just discussing the outlook for holiday sales coming in weaker than first expect. today, trying to cover some of those losses. similar small gains seen fo
but can any progress be made on the fiscal cliff? doubt it, but we'll see next. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm kelly evans. ross westgate is away. these are your headlines from around the world. president obama and congress return to work today with little progress seen on the deal to avoid the fiscal cliff while the government starts taking steps to buy more time before the u.s. hits the debt ceiling. the yen hits a two-year low against the dollar as the new...
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. >>> howard dean has been on our show many times and he says he wants to go over the fiscal cliff. the former dnc is here and he's going to join us next and tell us what he sees in the situation as it stands. and having an invt like northern trust by your side makes all the difference. we add precision to your portfolio construction by directly matching your assets and your risk preferences against your own unique life goals. we call it goals driven investing. after all, you don't climb a mountain just to sit at the top. you look around for other mountains to climb. ♪ expertise matters. find it at northern trust. >>> there are elements of a deal in the works right now, but we know we will be going over the cliff tonight at least technically. some of the gop think remarks from the president earlier today made a deal harder to reach. listen. >> if republicans think that i will finish the job of deficit reduction through spending cuts alone without asking also equivalent sacrifice from millionaires or companies with a lot of lobbyists, et cetera, if they think that's going to be the
. >>> howard dean has been on our show many times and he says he wants to go over the fiscal cliff. the former dnc is here and he's going to join us next and tell us what he sees in the situation as it stands. and having an invt like northern trust by your side makes all the difference. we add precision to your portfolio construction by directly matching your assets and your risk preferences against your own unique life goals. we call it goals driven investing. after all, you don't...
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same thing with the fiscal cliff. >> josh brown? >> hey, bill, i read most of your commentary and it seems to me that you tend to be a lot more positive on the prospects for things like emerging market debt. i'll curious if that extends to emerging market stocks as well and in either emerging stocks or debt should we be thinking about high-grade corporate, the bricks, not the bricks, could you give us kind of the road map of where you think best values are overseas? >> sure. i think the developing markets, the emerging market terminology is really a misnomer. many of these economies, talking about brazil, mexico and others, have half the debt that the united states has. they have a very underdeveloped consumer economy and therefore the potential to expand. they have higher reserves in dollar terms than many developed countries. and so developing, emerging, i think investors have to go where the growth is if they are looking for risk assets, whether it be in corporate bonds or in equities. and going to these countries is symptom atti
same thing with the fiscal cliff. >> josh brown? >> hey, bill, i read most of your commentary and it seems to me that you tend to be a lot more positive on the prospects for things like emerging market debt. i'll curious if that extends to emerging market stocks as well and in either emerging stocks or debt should we be thinking about high-grade corporate, the bricks, not the bricks, could you give us kind of the road map of where you think best values are overseas? >> sure. i...
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the markets are looking for some direction after fiscal cliff negotiations stall. we get the word from the nyse floor, next on what you should be watching in today's session. later on, the anti-tax man himself is here to tell us about how he feels about the latest developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations. what a wild ride here we've seen all morning long. right now the dow up about 25. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm john harwood in washington. i want to bring you up to date on the latest of the talks between vice president biden and mitch mcconnell. there's some concern among democrats who have heard that the income threshold for tax rate increases may be going up to 400, 450, $500,000. a source familiar with the talks just phoned me to say the democrats are only considering that under a couple of conditions. one is that if the threshold goes up to that level, the top income tax rate would go all the way back up to the clinton era rate of 39.6%. not some mid point of 37% talked about a couple of weeks ago. secondly, that it would be accompanie
the markets are looking for some direction after fiscal cliff negotiations stall. we get the word from the nyse floor, next on what you should be watching in today's session. later on, the anti-tax man himself is here to tell us about how he feels about the latest developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations. what a wild ride here we've seen all morning long. right now the dow up about 25. >>> welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm john harwood in washington. i want to...
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does the fiscal cliff even matter? over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insue q usaa. we know what it means to serve. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... we've decided to we're all having such a great year in the gulf, put aside our rivalry. 'cause all our states are great. and now is when the gulf gets even better. the beaches and waters couldn't be m
does the fiscal cliff even matter? over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insue q usaa. we know what it means to serve. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with...
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cliff. >> some finger pointing. other republicans are now looking past new year's day to the next battleground. >> i will raise the debt ceiling only if we save medicare and social security and prevent this country from becoming greece. no more borrowing without addressing why we're in debt to begin with. that's where the real chance for change occurs, at the debt ceiling debate. >> we're joined now by ralph sill voe. it's christmas eve. do you have some plans to do? >> it's an austerity christmas, actually. just a couple friends getting together and a couple of friends getting together and having a nice meal. >> it is not an austerity christmas. >> it actually is. we haven't had the greatest year. everything we hoped would happen. we thought this economy was going to turn around at the summer period. >> ralph, if you take a look at the stock market concerns, the dax is up 20%. >> there will be plenty of alcohol to forget. >> do you think we're going to manage to see some type of a resolutio
cliff. >> some finger pointing. other republicans are now looking past new year's day to the next battleground. >> i will raise the debt ceiling only if we save medicare and social security and prevent this country from becoming greece. no more borrowing without addressing why we're in debt to begin with. that's where the real chance for change occurs, at the debt ceiling debate. >> we're joined now by ralph sill voe. it's christmas eve. do you have some plans to do? >>...
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five days to go until the fiscal cliff and the heat is turning up on both sides of the aisle. house speaker john boehner says the senate needs to act first. meantime, just about 40 minutes ago, tim geithner said the u.s. is simply running out of money. let's get the latest on this game of chicken from c nbc's chief political correspondent, john harwood. john? >> melissa, i want to bring you up to date on the fiscal cliff developments. first of all, as you mentioned, secretary geithner has informed the senate that the united states government will hit its debt ceiling on monday. that is december 31st. now, that doesn't mean that anything happens immediately, because the treasury can take various steps to postpone the moment of reckoning, probably a couple of months. it's still significant. that's an effort to pressure congress. secondly, the house republicans have met, leadership has met, sent a letter to democrats saying the house has acted, now it's up to the senate to act. that's, of course, the m theic-controlled senate which has no intention of taking up that house bill, w
five days to go until the fiscal cliff and the heat is turning up on both sides of the aisle. house speaker john boehner says the senate needs to act first. meantime, just about 40 minutes ago, tim geithner said the u.s. is simply running out of money. let's get the latest on this game of chicken from c nbc's chief political correspondent, john harwood. john? >> melissa, i want to bring you up to date on the fiscal cliff developments. first of all, as you mentioned, secretary geithner has...
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the markets may be hanging off the fiscal cliff, causing investors to take cover until caller waters prepail. we want to know which stock you are betting on for high risk high reward in 2013. let's be clear, this is money that you're willing to lose. this is a lottery ticket play. this is, if you have to take a flyer on any stock in 2013, what would it be and we asked our traders, so, doc jay? >> scientific games. sgms. if mobile gaming, if you start walking around with one of these and you can play all manner of gaming, video poker, slot machine, all that sort of thing, these guys make that kind of technology work. that's why i like sgms. it was north of $40 five years ago. it's cheaper than going to see "les mis" though anthony's daughter is in it. >> correct. i've seen it three times. >> gets better each time, right? >> better each time and i caught the seconds she's in it. go amelia. >> steve weiss, similar rationale. you picked a stock that is in the -- >> toilet. >> yes. thank you for saying that. >> nihd. and here's the story with it. it's cheap. only four times enterprise val
the markets may be hanging off the fiscal cliff, causing investors to take cover until caller waters prepail. we want to know which stock you are betting on for high risk high reward in 2013. let's be clear, this is money that you're willing to lose. this is a lottery ticket play. this is, if you have to take a flyer on any stock in 2013, what would it be and we asked our traders, so, doc jay? >> scientific games. sgms. if mobile gaming, if you start walking around with one of these and...
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once the fiscal cliff gets resolved, we think there will be more momentum on the hiring front. hiring will lead to further consumption gains and that will encourage firms to invest. that's how we get the virtuus cycle started. >> new nuclear yar is a completely different issue. the costs there could be quite considerable. i think now with the market prices that you have, you're looking at a situation where governments, just like in the uk, have to come one a support mechanism to make that economically viable. so i think that's going to be the saying across the world. that is quite expensive here in europe. i don't necessarily see europe as a whole changing its mind and going from nuclear. if you take germany, for example, why did they change their mind? obviously, there were safety concerns but probably more importantly, it was to do with the ballot box. there was quite a bit of opposition, people out on the streets protesting and in the end of the days, the politicians decided to take what i considered to be a political course rather than an economic one. >> i don't think we w
once the fiscal cliff gets resolved, we think there will be more momentum on the hiring front. hiring will lead to further consumption gains and that will encourage firms to invest. that's how we get the virtuus cycle started. >> new nuclear yar is a completely different issue. the costs there could be quite considerable. i think now with the market prices that you have, you're looking at a situation where governments, just like in the uk, have to come one a support mechanism to make that...
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the fiscal cliff. >>> the dow erases a 150 point decline on news that the house will be back in session on sunday evening. and time is rubbing out to avoid a strike at 14 major east coast ports. a work stoppage to cost the economy $1 billion a day. it's friday, december 28th, 2012. and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. and it does feel like we're living a bit on the edge of the fiscal cliff, at least. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick is off today. our guest host this hour, ed kehone. he's the management associate portfolio manager and we are thrilled to have ed aboard for -- i think you'll be here for longer than an hour. you'll be here for the whole broadcast. >> as long as you need me. >> you're like -- how long were you at -- you were at prudential. >> it's owned by prudential, so i've been at peru don'tal for almost 15 years now. >> widely quoted. you know who has made a comeback is ralph -- >> akampora. >> i've see
the fiscal cliff. >>> the dow erases a 150 point decline on news that the house will be back in session on sunday evening. and time is rubbing out to avoid a strike at 14 major east coast ports. a work stoppage to cost the economy $1 billion a day. it's friday, december 28th, 2012. and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. and it does feel like we're living a bit on the edge of the fiscal cliff, at least....
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so i think we're dealing with a slowdown, even if they have some resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think the difference between next year, 2013, and this year, is if you think about what we were dealing with coming into the year in the beginning of 2012, people are concerned about the breakup of the euro, imminent u.s. recession, they were saying, china hard landing. so when some of these things didn't happen, all we needed last year, this year, was less bad in the market. i think in 2013, we're going to need to see better economic growth as the year moves forward. because, as you say, the market is reasonably valued. but it's not cheap. and i think to jason's earlier point, there are some stocks out there that are very, very attractive. but there are some stocks that look fairly expensive, and those are the ones that are the defensive, and high-income plays today. >> chris, everyone's waiting for this asset allocation shift away from fixed income, towards equities. the retail investor, for whatever reason, for a variety of reasons that we can all list, i guess, has just been ver
so i think we're dealing with a slowdown, even if they have some resolution to the fiscal cliff. i think the difference between next year, 2013, and this year, is if you think about what we were dealing with coming into the year in the beginning of 2012, people are concerned about the breakup of the euro, imminent u.s. recession, they were saying, china hard landing. so when some of these things didn't happen, all we needed last year, this year, was less bad in the market. i think in 2013,...
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Dec 28, 2012
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cliff here. something will be done. and there will be a look back and they'll correct the tax implications for all of us. but the thing they won't be able to do anything about and that they will actually have to negotiate and get done is the debt ceiling. that is the big thing facing us right now. most likely in the first three weeks of january. >> what makes you give back into the market? what makes you put a position on? >> i think we'll see some panic during the first three weeks of january. i really do. >> a whoosh down and then start fishing. >> yes. i would like to see that same sort of panic that lifts us into the mid 20s for the vix. i don't want to see that folks but when scott is asking me when would i get back in, i'll get back in because i anticipate that panic because as these guys have proved, they said november 16th. we're not going to go to the end of the line to get this thing approved. they've come all the way to the end of the line. they will do the same thing with the debt cei
cliff here. something will be done. and there will be a look back and they'll correct the tax implications for all of us. but the thing they won't be able to do anything about and that they will actually have to negotiate and get done is the debt ceiling. that is the big thing facing us right now. most likely in the first three weeks of january. >> what makes you give back into the market? what makes you put a position on? >> i think we'll see some panic during the first three weeks...
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Dec 31, 2012
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the problem is, you know, we created this fiscal cliff to make some tough decisions. and none are going to be made. not one. and so we're going to end up carrying this on now to the debt ceiling, which will be serious. i mean, that will be a serious moment. and our economy is not going to be what it could have been. i mean, we should have made all these decisions. this has been going on now for 24 months. and so this is going to be a disappointment no matter what. we'll eke by this. but then the real discussions will begin. that's why i wrote the letter yesterday to the president saying, look, you know, it would actually be really helpful to our nation and the dialogue if you would lay out what these are. lamar alexander and i put a bill in this week, raising the debt ceiling by $1 trillion with $1 trillion worth of entitlement reforms, but the president has a list that would be very helpful. but there is no list. >> let me ask you about that. because we hear a lot from the republican saying the president you need to lay out entitlement -- >> which i did last week. >>
the problem is, you know, we created this fiscal cliff to make some tough decisions. and none are going to be made. not one. and so we're going to end up carrying this on now to the debt ceiling, which will be serious. i mean, that will be a serious moment. and our economy is not going to be what it could have been. i mean, we should have made all these decisions. this has been going on now for 24 months. and so this is going to be a disappointment no matter what. we'll eke by this. but then...
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Dec 27, 2012
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not in the health and maturity -- >> not the fiscal cliff? >> no, i'm just talking about interest rates. >> anything happening if we go through? you know it's coming up, monday is new year's eve. >> it will hurt the economy which will hurt banks. but banks have rallied, i think, mostly because of the fed. they have cash flow, they were underperforming assets. allocations were very low on financials. so we've come back. that's the first point. but i really don't see huge volume growth in the industry. if we have mid single digit revenue growth next year for all banks, that would be good. i think credit costs will keep coming down. that's what's been driving the increase in operating margins in the industry. just falling -- go when does that reverse itself? >> well, i don't think it does. we're at about 1.1% charge off the total loans. it was twice that a year ago. we have peaked up in the fours. so we're in much better shape. but remember the industry is only making 1% return on assets. most banks are 70% to 80% loan. so if you're still chargi
not in the health and maturity -- >> not the fiscal cliff? >> no, i'm just talking about interest rates. >> anything happening if we go through? you know it's coming up, monday is new year's eve. >> it will hurt the economy which will hurt banks. but banks have rallied, i think, mostly because of the fed. they have cash flow, they were underperforming assets. allocations were very low on financials. so we've come back. that's the first point. but i really don't see huge...
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Dec 26, 2012
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crosses the fiscal cliff. joining us now on set, eric dinallo e, the former new york state insurance superintendent. you have lots of deficit perspectives on this, perhaps from the insurance sort of angle. you were saying during the commercial break, you have a political view on this as well. >> i'm now convinced, this is very very cynical. it's easier for politicians who signed up on that pledge, they can go to their voters and say i didn't vote for a tax increase, i voted for a tax increase. if they go in over the cliff, it comes in automatically. >> the public is that dumb in 2014 people running campaign commercials? >> the headlines are simple, did not vote for a tax hike, tax increase and people couldn't get their house in order and that's the story and how simple sometimes politics are what you can say with a straight face versus not. >> you were here three or four weeks ago talking about insurance implications for insurance companies. and where we are now, insurance companies, will this change their bus
crosses the fiscal cliff. joining us now on set, eric dinallo e, the former new york state insurance superintendent. you have lots of deficit perspectives on this, perhaps from the insurance sort of angle. you were saying during the commercial break, you have a political view on this as well. >> i'm now convinced, this is very very cynical. it's easier for politicians who signed up on that pledge, they can go to their voters and say i didn't vote for a tax increase, i voted for a tax...
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Dec 26, 2012
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. >> five days away from going over that fiscal cliff, as matthew said. how should you position your portfolio? gentlemen, good morning to you both. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> good morning. >> charles, everybody wants to know, if you're in the mood to buy something, do you really take a flier on congress getting it together, even if the president is coming back early from vacation? >> no. it would be a mistake to be trading your portfolio based on your outlook, this is the most widely covered story i've seen in a long time. it would be a bad idea to try to invest, making a prediction around the fiscal cliff. what you do know, we believe when this gets solved, and it will, that the stock market looks pretty cheap to us. when they get behind this, there are certain sectors that will do very, very well. >> david, is it possible, i mean, if this goes well into january, and we are down 500 points, 600 points, what do you do? >> well, i think you have to look long term, carl. that's a little bit trite, but ultimately you have to look at
. >> five days away from going over that fiscal cliff, as matthew said. how should you position your portfolio? gentlemen, good morning to you both. good to see you again. >> thanks for having me. >> good morning. >> charles, everybody wants to know, if you're in the mood to buy something, do you really take a flier on congress getting it together, even if the president is coming back early from vacation? >> no. it would be a mistake to be trading your portfolio...
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Dec 24, 2012
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>> no, i think there could be a deal that will avoid the fiscal cliff. but it will be a short-term deal, not a big deal. it will kick the can down the road on the important issues. like let's assume the president got the entire increase on the top 2%. that's only $400 billion. where is the next $800 billion going to come from? nobody's decided. those are tough issues. is it going to be meaningful entitlement reform? meaningful reform of the health care cost curve? are we going to do something about military spending? robert gates says we can take $80 billion a year out of the military budget. we're not going to do that. but are we going to do something meaningful? those are the issues. all we seem to have done, even if we pull it out in the last week, we kick the can down the road on the very important long-term issues. >> so if this is really a blown opportunity, to borrow your phrase, how does the campaign to fix the debt's mission change? or does it stay constant as we kick this and move it into the new year? >> we're constant. we're back there bangin
>> no, i think there could be a deal that will avoid the fiscal cliff. but it will be a short-term deal, not a big deal. it will kick the can down the road on the important issues. like let's assume the president got the entire increase on the top 2%. that's only $400 billion. where is the next $800 billion going to come from? nobody's decided. those are tough issues. is it going to be meaningful entitlement reform? meaningful reform of the health care cost curve? are we going to do...